Africa’s Shift to Predictive Disease Control Amid Climate Challenges – Prof. Ansumana


Abuja: Prof. Rashid Ansumana, Dean of the College of Medical Sciences at Njala University, Sierra Leone, asserts that Africa is progressively moving towards a paradigm shift in climate-driven disease control. He highlights that the continent is transitioning from merely reacting to infectious disease outbreaks to predicting them through integrated, climate-informed health surveillance systems.



According to News Agency of Nigeria, Ansumana shared these insights in an interview ahead of the 4th International Conference on Public Health in Africa (CPHIA 2025), scheduled to be held from October 22 to 25 in Durban, South Africa. The conference will focus on ‘Moving Towards Self-Reliance to Achieve Universal Health Coverage and Health Security in Africa.’ Ansumana discussed the impact of climate change on disease ecology in Africa, noting that changes in rainfall, temperature, and humidity are altering the habitats of disease vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and rodents, leading to new and resurging patterns of disease transmission across the continent.



Ansumana further explained that the Sixth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) highlights that sub-Saharan Africa is now experiencing more heat waves, floods, and droughts, conditions that favor Aedes and Anopheles mosquitoes, which transmit diseases like dengue and malaria. He noted that malaria and dengue transmission zones are expanding into highland areas and semi-arid regions due to rising temperatures, while flooding and poor sanitation increase outbreaks of cholera and other waterborne diseases. Deforestation and agricultural expansion are bringing humans and animals into closer contact, raising the risk of zoonotic infections such as Lassa fever.



Africa’s health systems, already strained by limited resources, face climate-driven disease challenges that demand collaboration across human, animal, and environmental sectors. Ansumana highlighted that African institutions are increasingly investing in early warning and response systems that integrate climate data into disease surveillance. He praised initiatives like the Africa CDC’s One Health Programme, which promotes surveillance across people, animals, and the environment, helping to detect and respond to health threats faster. At the regional level, the ECOWAS Regional One Health Action Plan supports member countries in sharing data, strengthening preparedness, and building capacity to tackle health emergencies before they escalate.



Some African countries have begun linking meteorological and epidemiological data to predict potential outbreaks using models that monitor rainfall, vegetation, and rodent population density. This shift from reactive to predictive public health allows officials to intervene before an outbreak gets out of control. Ansumana emphasized that the One Health approach remains Africa’s best opportunity to build health security amid climate change. He noted that over 60% of new infectious diseases in humans originate from animals, and historically, surveillance systems have been fragmented. The One Health approach brings all sectors together to share laboratories, harmonize data, and strengthen collaboration.



Ansumana applauded the Africa CDC Framework for One Health Practice, which helps countries establish national coordination mechanisms, standardize laboratory systems, and train multidisciplinary teams. Programs like the Field Epidemiology and Laboratory Training Programme (FELTP) are producing epidemiologists who can interpret disease trends across social, environmental, and veterinary dimensions, providing the expertise needed to foresee and contain health threats before they spread.



Beyond science and policy, Ansumana stressed the importance of effective communication as the vital bridge between early warning and community action. He cited the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak, where trusted local radio stations and community messengers played a crucial role in spreading accurate information and saving lives. Across West Africa, Community Action Networks (CANs) are now linking traditional leaders, women’s groups, and youth associations with district surveillance officers. In countries like Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and Nigeria, community members use platforms like WhatsApp to report unusual human or animal illnesses or environmental stress such as flooding, fostering trust and enabling quicker responses at the local level.



Ansumana warned that for these networks to remain sustainable, there must be deliberate investment in media literacy and journalists’ training. When journalists, scientists, and communities work together, early warnings become clearer, more inclusive, and more actionable. The media plays a crucial role in amplifying early warnings, simplifying technical forecasts, and helping people take preventive measures.



He concluded by emphasizing that building Africa’s resilience against climate-sensitive diseases requires convergence between predictive data, local trust, and multisectoral collaboration. Ansumana called on governments, regional bodies, and development partners to prioritize One Health investments as part of national climate adaptation and health security strategies. He stated that resilience is not just about technology, but also about people, and if ministries of health, environment, and agriculture work together with communities, Africa will no longer be chasing outbreaks but anticipating them.



As the continent prepares for CPHIA 2025 in Durban, discussions on One Health and climate adaptation are expected to take center stage, with experts urging African countries to build sustainable, home-grown solutions that reinforce self-reliance and health security.