Abuja: The Minister of Water Resources and Sanitation, Prof. Joseph Utsev, announced that 33 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) will face significant flooding in 2026. This warning emerged as he presented the 2026 Annual Flood Outlook (AFO) by the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency (NIHSA) in Abuja. Utsev highlighted that 14,118 communities across the nation have been identified as high-risk areas.
According to News Agency of Nigeria, the high-risk communities are situated within 266 Local Government Areas (LGAs), as determined by scientific forecasts and hydrological assessments. The states impacted by this prediction include Abia, Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Gombe, Imo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Kwara, Lagos, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Plateau, Rivers, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe, and Zamfara, including the FCT.
The minister further stated that 15,597 communities in 405 LGAs across 35 states face a moderate flood risk, leaving Ekiti as the sole unaffected state. Additionally, 923 communities in 77 LGAs across 24 states fall into the low flood risk category, with states such as Adamawa, Anambra, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Benue, Borno, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kebbi, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Osun, Oyo, Sokoto, Taraba, and Zamfara on this list.
Utsev warned of potential flash and urban flooding in major cities, including Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Ibadan, and Kano. He also indicated that coastal and riverine flooding is anticipated in Bayelsa, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Ogun, Rivers, and Ondo due to rising sea levels and tidal surges. Emphasizing the seriousness of the situation, he described the AFO as a call to action, highlighting that early warnings are crucial for saving lives and reducing economic losses.
In his remarks, Utsev attributed the increasing flood incidents to factors such as climate variability, rapid urbanization, inadequate drainage infrastructure, and poor land-use practices. He revealed that the Federal Government is enhancing hydrological monitoring with improved data systems, automated river gauges, and advanced modeling techniques. Furthermore, collaboration with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) and the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) is being strengthened to improve forecast accuracy and early warning dissemination.
The minister urged state governments to incorporate flood risk considerations into land-use planning, urban development, and infrastructure design. He also called for improved drainage systems, effective floodplain management, and stronger community preparedness to mitigate impacts.
Earlier, President Bola Tinubu, represented by the Minister of Environment, Balarabe Lawal, highlighted the recurring challenge of flooding since 2012. Tinubu stated that his administration has initiated policies and programs, including flood control projects, to combat this persistent threat. He mentioned that the 2024 Maiduguri flood was a turning point toward proactive flood and disaster management.
Tinubu noted that the Anticipatory Action initiative, led by the Office of the Vice-President, is enhancing early warning, preparedness, and coordinated response efforts. He described the AFO as a crucial planning document guiding early action, mitigation, and evacuation strategies nationwide. He urged stakeholders to use the forecasts to protect lives, livelihoods, and critical infrastructure.
Also contributing to the discussions, the Director-General of NIHSA, Umar Mohammed, explained that the forecast is based on comprehensive, data-driven analyses of flood-prone areas. Mohammed emphasized that the AFO serves as an early warning tool to support planning and coordinated disaster response efforts nationwide. He added that the agency has upgraded its forecasting system to a hybrid AI-integrated model to improve accuracy and lead time.
Mohammed highlighted that the Flood Dashboard now enables real-time monitoring and dissemination of alerts to stakeholders. He urged residents in vulnerable areas to heed early warnings and adopt preventive measures to reduce risks. The NIHSA director-general called for wider dissemination of the outlook to strengthen community preparedness and resilience. He expressed appreciation for the support from the Federal Government and development partners in preparing the 2026 outlook.
Goodwill messages were also delivered by representatives of the World Meteorological Organisation, NiMet, NEMA, the Minister of Livestock Development, Dr. Idi Maiha, and other stakeholders.