Washington: Twenty-five years since the tragic events of 9/11, al Qaeda has transformed significantly but continues to pose a threat. Although the global jihadist network has experienced critical setbacks, including the deaths of leaders Osama bin Laden in 2011 and Ayman al-Zawahiri over a decade later, it remains a destabilizing force in various regions.
According to France24.com, al Qaeda last succeeded in attacking U.S. soil in December 2019, with a deadly strike at the Pensacola Naval Air Station in Florida. Despite its reduced capacity for Western attacks, the group, now less centralized, has empowered its franchises and affiliates, becoming a significant threat in regions such as the Sahel, Somalia, Yemen, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.
In Africa, particularly the Sahel, al Qaeda’s regional branches are notably active, influenced by the withdrawal of international troops. The JNIM, al Qaeda’s most active affiliate in the region, has a presence in several countries, including Mali and Nigeria. In Somalia,
al Shabaab has regained control over large areas, demonstrating the enduring influence of al Qaeda-aligned groups.
Across the Arabian Peninsula, AQAP has faced military challenges but continues to engage in propaganda targeting Western audiences. In Afghanistan, despite Taliban denials, al Qaeda benefits from a conducive environment, maintaining its global strategic capabilities. This was highlighted in a UN report detailing the distribution of a ransom among al Qaeda affiliates.
Despite these ongoing threats, U.S. strategic priorities have shifted, notably with the recent counter-terrorism strategy focusing on transnational cartels and criminal gangs as primary threats. This shift has led to a reallocation of resources away from jihadist threats, raising concerns about potential under-resourcing, reminiscent of pre-9/11 conditions.
Former President George W. Bush, speaking in Dallas, criticized the U.S.’s retreat from international engagement, emphasizing the importance of recognizing overseas threats to
national security.
In Europe, although Russian interference and the Ukraine conflict are prioritized, the threat of Islamist terrorism persists. European security services continue to monitor both homegrown threats and foreign-based jihadist activities, as evidenced by recent arrests in France linked to IS plots.
Despite its allegiance to al Qaeda, groups like JNIM in the Sahel region have shifted focus from global jihad to localized insurgency, illustrating a change in priorities since 9/11. Nonetheless, the threat of Islamist militancy, both homegrown and from abroad, remains a concern for Western security services.