Abuja: An expert, Benjamin Ekeyi, has described Nigeria’s 4.43 per cent Q2 2026 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth as encouraging, but cautioned against declaring the economy firmly on a sustainable recovery path. Ekeyi, a Public Finance Management and Governance expert, shared his insights during an interview in Abuja, while reacting to Nigeria’s latest GDP report.
According to News Agency of Nigeria, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that Nigeria’s real GDP grew by 4.43 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2026, surpassing the 4.23 per cent recorded in the same quarter of 2025. The NBS also noted that in nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N119.29 trillion in Q2 2026, compared with N100.73 trillion in Q2 2025, marking an 18.43 per cent year-on-year increase.
Ekeyi emphasized that sustained recovery would require several consecutive quarters of growth driven by productivity, private investment, manufacturing, agriculture, and infrastructure. He pointed out that Nigeria’s continued dependence on oil prices and production levels remains a significant vulnerability to the economy.
Ekeyi further explained that the GDP growth had yet to translate into significant improvements in the living standards of ordinary Nigerians, highlighting a ‘growth-welfare gap’. He noted that while macroeconomic indicators might show progress, they do not immediately relieve households. Poverty remains high, with approximately 27 million Nigerians facing food insecurity by late 2025, according to International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures. Additionally, NBS figures showed headline inflation at 15.43 per cent and food inflation at 20.31 per cent.
On the risks to the growth outlook, Ekeyi identified several factors, including inflation, oil price and production vulnerability, insecurity, weak industrial capacity, fiscal constraints, debt-service pressure, and policy inconsistency. He cautioned that higher international prices of food, fuel, and fertilizer could trigger renewed inflationary pressures, weakening household purchasing power.
Ekeyi noted that oil-sector growth was a crucial contributor to the second-quarter performance, with production rising to about 1.72 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.55 million bpd in the first quarter. However, he warned that falling oil prices, production disruptions, and insecurity in oil-producing areas could negatively affect growth and government revenue.
The expert also expressed concern over the industrial sector’s performance, which grew by 3.96 per cent in the second quarter compared to 7.46 per cent in the same quarter of 2025. Ekeyi underscored the necessity of stronger industrial and manufacturing activity to create large-scale employment and achieve sustainable growth.
He urged the government to maintain consistency in its economic policies, cautioning that frequent policy changes could weaken investor confidence and undermine ongoing reforms. To foster inclusive growth, Ekeyi called for increased investment in food production, infrastructure, and job-creating sectors. He recommended enhancing agricultural productivity through irrigation, improved inputs, mechanization, storage facilities, rural roads, and improved security.
Ekeyi also advocated measures to reduce the cost of doing business through improved electricity supply, efficient transportation, affordable credit, and a predictable regulatory environment, especially for MSMEs and manufacturers. He called for prioritizing sectors that can absorb Nigeria’s large labor force, including agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, construction, digital services, and the creative economy.
The expert also emphasized the need for stronger and better-targeted social protection programs to cushion vulnerable households from the impact of economic reforms. He suggested that cash transfers should be complemented with interventions in food security, healthcare, education, affordable transportation, and employment.
On revenue mobilization, Ekeyi recommended broadening the tax base, improving compliance, and reducing leakages rather than merely increasing the tax burden on businesses and households. He further urged authorities to sustain efforts to stabilize the exchange rate, rebuild external reserves, contain inflation, and strengthen confidence in monetary policy.
Ekeyi concluded that the ultimate test of Nigeria’s economic recovery would be whether stronger GDP growth translates into more jobs, higher household incomes, lower food costs, and reduced poverty.