Abuja: President Bola Tinubu finished ahead of Peter Obi by 1,067 responses in the Oxford-Metro Analytics’ National Trust Poll.
According to News Agency of Nigeria, the poll, which closed on Sept. 7, recorded a total of 69,110 approved and unflagged responses in its final analytical dataset. Tinubu received 24,469 responses, representing 35.41 per cent of the total responses, while Obi polled 23,402, representing 33.86 per cent. Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar came third with 18,430 responses, representing 26.67 per cent of the total participation.
The result gave Tinubu an advantage of 1,067 responses over Obi, translating to approximately 1.54 percentage points. The poll’s regional distribution suggested a significantly different electoral map from the outcome of the 2023 presidential election, with Tinubu leading in 20 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Meanwhile, Obi and Atiku recorded the highest number of responses each in eight states. The strongest changes were recorded in parts of Nort
hern Nigeria, where the poll indicated growing support for Tinubu, particularly in Kaduna, Katsina, and Gombe, which were previously won by Atiku in the 2023 presidential election.
At the regional level, Tinubu led in the South-West, North-West, and North-Central geopolitical zones. Obi recorded his strongest performances in the South-East and South-South, while Atiku led in the North-East. Despite Tinubu’s wider geographical spread, the national contest remained remarkably close between the leading candidates.
Some individual state contests were considerably closer than the broader regional figures suggested. In Kogi, for instance, Tinubu received 39 responses, Atiku 38, and Obi 33 out of only 110 responses recorded. The one-response difference between Tinubu and Atiku in Kogi demonstrated the importance of considering the relatively small participation base in interpreting the figures.
Beyond the three leading candidates, Omoyele Sowore received 1,016 responses, followed by Seyi Makinde with 519 and form
er President Goodluck Jonathan with 284. Participation was heavily concentrated geographically, with Lagos and the FCT alone accounting for 54.44 per cent of all responses. The final dataset also contained 56 diaspora responses, which were excluded from the six domestic regional tallies.