Abuja: Mr Tanimu Yakubu, the Director-General of the Budget Office of the Federation, has stated that President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms, widely referred to as Tinubunomics, were never meant to deliver “instant abundance.” Yakubu made this declaration in a statement titled “Tinubunomics and the Arithmetic of Illusion,” issued on Sunday in Abuja. He addressed the criticism against the reforms, attributing much of it to misleading arithmetic rather than sound economic analysis.
According to News Agency of Nigeria, Yakubu pointed out that the current economic debate in Nigeria is marked by the circulation of large numbers and the casualness with which they are assembled, labeling this as an “arithmetic illusion.” He emphasized that many viral critiques fail to distinguish between revenue, cash, and financing, as well as between federation-wide collections and actual Federal Government budgetary resources, which are fundamental aspects of public finance.
Yakubu highlighted that borrowing is often mistakenly treated as income, while federation revenues are frequently presented as if they were entirely available to the Federal Government. He stated, “Revenue is not the same as cash available to the Federal Government. Borrowing is not income; it is financing and creates future obligations. Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend.”
Critics, according to Yakubu, tend to aggregate tax collections, oil revenues, customs receipts, borrowing, and subsidy savings into large headline figures, leading to questions about the expenditure of such sums. He explained that these dramatic numbers, such as 150 trillion or 180 trillion, are misleading, as much of the money never existed in the form implied.
Yakubu clarified that the removal of fuel subsidies did not generate discretionary cash but instead closed longstanding fiscal leakages. He elaborated that subsidy reform does not create idle cash but reduces deficit pressure, improves budgeting discipline, and provides targeted support, rather than sudden spendable savings.
Regarding public debt, Yakubu noted that much of the recent increase in naira-denominated debt resulted from exchange-rate revaluation of existing external obligations, not fresh borrowing. He explained that when the exchange rate adjusts, the naira value of dollar-denominated debt rises automatically, and treating this accounting effect as new borrowing is an error.
Yakubu stressed that Tinubunomics represents a macro-fiscal reset undertaken within severe inherited constraints, including debt service burdens, security spending, legacy arrears, and constitutional obligations. He concluded by asserting that Tinubunomics was never a promise of instant abundance but rather a structural reset aimed at restoring price signals, strengthening revenue administration, rebuilding credibility, and repricing the public balance sheet while protecting the most vulnerable. Proper accountability, he said, should focus on federal retained revenue, financing sources, expenditure composition, and measurable outcomes.