Bangkok:The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that global economic resilience is under significant strain, with various risks threatening growth prospects. Key challenges include rising energy prices, increased borrowing costs, and uncertainties surrounding artificial intelligence (AI).
According to News Agency of Nigeria, Silvana Tenreyro, Director of the IMF’s Research Department, highlighted these concerns during a news briefing on the IMF’s 2026 World Economic Outlook Update. This report was released at the 2026 IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings held in Bangkok, Thailand. The report, titled “Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices,” projects a global economic growth rate of 3.1% in 2026, a decrease from 2025, with a recovery anticipated in 2027.
Tenreyro explained that the global economy is influenced by two opposing forces the negative impact of rising energy and commodity prices due to Middle East conflicts, and the positive effects of an AI-driven investment and trade boom. While higher energy prices increase costs and constrain economic activity, the AI boom supports demand and trade. These forces are contributing to rising inflation, with global headline inflation expected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before declining in 2027.
The report also notes that advanced economies face heightened fiscal concerns due to rising borrowing costs and elevated public debt. The outlook varies across countries, with energy-exporting nations and those integrated into the AI cycle expected to perform better, while energy importers and countries with limited technology participation face weaker growth.
Three major constraints to global economic resilience are identified persistent energy supply disruptions, concentrated AI-related investment, and fiscal vulnerabilities. Prolonged disruptions in energy production, coupled with tensions in the Middle East, could further elevate commodity prices. Meanwhile, concentrated supply chains in AI pose potential risks to growth and financial stability.
Tenreyro emphasized the need for decisive policy actions, urging governments to exercise fiscal restraint and focus on maintaining price stability through central banks. She also stressed the importance of temporary support measures targeted at the most vulnerable populations, while preserving market price signals.